While Turkey is an increasingly important natural gas and energy consuming country, strategically a transit country, it is also located between one of the major consuming areas in the EU, and on the other hand tapped or untapped oil and natural gas suppliers in the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. The government has set a number of strategic goals, such as creating an internal market on the way to liberalization and competitiveness which is aim to assure gas supply security. It also wants to reduce the state budget deficit and the losses of BOTAS to the minimum and preferably to override or shift the risks and investment responsibilities to private state companies.
Demand projections have raised concerns in the Turkish government about how to find an additional gas volume of approximately 20 BCM / year from current or new suppliers over the next two decades. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis to be able to understand the dynamics of the natural gas industry in Turkey explaining current situation and trends giving an overview about prognosis energy supply model. In this study regression analyses are used in order to forecast demand till 2025 and compare BOTAS’s projected demand growth. Moreover all gained data merged with present gas import contracts of Turkey and interpret Supply / Demand model.
The first task and the second tasks are about regression analysis performance in the chapter four, results are quantitively obtained and concluded that, Price Production Index and Mean Temperature data did not have impact on the back testing, as well as making prediction about future, therefore firstly analysis the seasonality cycle and using the time series technics MA (Moving Average) and CMA (Central Moving Average) showed the back test regarding historical gas demand data. According to the results on the regression model, It had a seasonal pattern as the most significant indicative on the consumption historical data. Hence using MA (Moving Average) and CMA (Central Moving Average) technics, predicted gas demand till 2025 was gained and successfully modelled.
In the chapter five, the third task presented a supply and demand model is portrayed based on natural gas supply contracts of Turkey, aforementioned model could be considered the comparison of the two demand forecast, BOTAS’s prediction and author’s forecasted data. It is expected that Turkey’s estimated natural gas demand increase in the next two decades will be around 3% or 1.5 BCM / year on average, two main goals need to be achieved. Firstly tackles the internal political, legal and technical obstacles and secondly, to cooperate with potential partners in neighbouring countries.
Thereafter, particular attention was given the forth task explained about improvements and possible solutions and alternative plans about natural gas industry in Turkey. Critical assessment about the natural gas industry of Turkey. The internal weaknesses and suggestions have been outlined as factors, It’s been evaluated the Turkish natural gas market’s current stage of